| FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASECONTACT: Ciro Riccardi | ciro@lawlerforcongress.com | (845) 642-6569 |
| With 21 days to go, Mike Lawler is in pole position to defend one of the most Democratic districts any House Republican currently holds. Mike is ahead because this district votes on results rather than rhetoric, has already voted against Hochul once, and because Cait Conley’s signature attacks are blatantly false while she consistently ducks tough questions about her employment, her positions, and anything her DC consultants say to avoid. No other House race looks like this one In 2024, Kamala Harris carried NY-17, 49.9% to 49.3%. Joe Biden won in NY-17 by 10 points four years earlier. Democrats outnumber Republicans here by nearly 80,000 voters. Axios reported: this is “the most Democratic-leaning seat in which a House Republican is running for reelection.” In the same year that Kamala Harris won, Mike handily carried the seat 52.2% to 45.9%, defeating Mondaire Jones and outperforming President Trump by nearly 7%. Our late-September survey shows Mike ahead 50% to 47%, while winning unaffiliated voters 52% to 40%, and most importantly, 20% of registered Democrats. Mike has a net-positive image, 50% favorable to 46% unfavorable, while Conley is at 42% to 48%. This follows earlier independent polling from July, which had him up 50% to 45%. Democrats have taken notice. A senior House Democrat told Axios in August, “I don’t think Lawler is beatable.” Another Democratic source called him “the kind of Republican we want in the Congress.” Why it works for Mike Last week, CNN reported that Conley “may still be facing an uphill battle” to unseat him. City & State made a similar point in a headline this week: “Mike Lawler might be the only Republican who could win NY-17.” Quoting a party leader: “There’s no other Republican in NY-17 that could win other than Mike Lawler.” The reporter, Kate Lisa, concluded that the race is “more so Lawler’s to lose than it is Conley’s to win.” There’s a reason for that. Bridge Grades scored Mike 99.2 out of 100 for the 119th Congress, the best mark in New York’s delegation. The Lugar Center ranked him the fourth most bipartisan member of the House in its 2023 index. CQ Roll Call’s vote study ranked him third among all House Republicans for votes against his own party in 2025, the same spot he held in 2024. That’s why Democrats like Maine Rep. Jared Golden wrote in his endorsement: “I strongly back him, and I hope voters send him back to work.” New Castle Councilwoman Ally Chemtob and Montebello Deputy Mayor Stacy Caridi, both Democrats, also endorsed him this cycle. Lawler is also not afraid to take on his own party to deliver for his constituents. He publicly fought President Trump over the SALT cap and delivered an increase from $10,000 to $40,000. He has fought Albany over its sanctuary law and Hochul’s utility rate hikes. “When I agree with the president, I say it,” he told Ben Jacobs. “When I disagree with him, I say it.” Kathy Hochul is an anchor downballot – especially for Conley In 2022, Hochul lost this district, and she is expected to lose it again. Her disapproval in the suburbs has implications for the balance of power in Congress. In 2022, Republicans flipped four Democratic-held House seats in New York and narrowly won a fifth, all in districts Joe Biden carried. When Nancy Pelosi was asked in 2024 how Democrats lost the House, she said, as NY1 reported, “Five seats in New York.” Asked what happened, she said, “I think it related to the gubernatorial race.” Siena’s own pollster drew the comparison last month. At this point in 2022, he noted, Hochul led Zeldin by 17 points. She later won by only six. While polls show Hochul ahead, her problem is that voters in New York City, not voters in competitive congressional seats, are driving the lead. In Siena’s September poll, independents disapprove of job performance 56% to 39%. Marist’s October poll has independents backing Blakeman 49% to 42%. In NY-17, previous polling put her job rating at 36% approval, and our September survey shows Blakeman leading 51% to 47% and, most importantly, 55% to 37% among unaffiliated voters, the crucial group that decides this race. Her two signature attacks are false, and she won’t answer tough questions For two months, Conley’s campaign, propped up by DC insiders, has leaned on two claims. The first is that Mike “voted with Trump 100% of the time.” City & State traced the number to a VoteHub tool covering 2025, describing it as incomplete: “that analysis doesn’t include every piece of legislation.” Ben Jacobs called the line “not precise.” Meanwhile, the CQ Roll Call study has Mike third among all House Republicans for votes against his own party. Cait repeated that line ad nauseam at our first debate with News 12 on September 28th, despite its falsehood. Second, Cait has claimed at News12, “On Mike Lawler’s watch, there have been five data centers built in Rockland County.” On Oct. 7, Brian Lehrer had Timmy Facciola of the Judge Street Journal walk through the record. He said the Rockland data centers “have all been built, with the exception of one, prior to 2021.” That exception, DataBank’s Orangeburg facility, was approved by the Orangetown Planning Board in 2022, noting that Mike was not sworn into Congress until January 2023. Facciola went further, adding that none of them meet the threshold in Hochul’s own moratorium, and that on the Orangetown proposal, Mike’s position is “exactly as Lawler said.” Chris McKenna from the Journal News also dismissed Conley’s attack, stating in his recent article that “There are no obvious links between Lawler and the data centers built in his town. Lawler served on no Orangetown boards that granted approvals for the projects, and he had no say over them as a state assemblyman and then a U.S. House member since 2021.” There is one candidate in this race with a data center problem. Two AI companies, Hidden Level and Primer, have paid Cait Conley $328,283 since January 2025, according to the financial disclosure she filed May 19. She still won’t say what she does for these companies for the money. Beyond that, Cait Conley has yet to answer a series of basic questions about her employment, her rhetoric, and her positions. Media are encouraged to ask Cait to answer the following questions on the record: What does Cait Conley do for the AI companies that are paying her over $250,000/year? Will Cait Conley, a former Biden NSC Director of Counterterrorism, retract or apologize for her comments on the campaign trail that Republicans and Trump voters are a greater threat to this country than terrorist groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda, or Russia and China? Does Cait Conley believe that illegal immigrants with criminal records should be protected by sanctuary laws in New York and other states? Or should DHS be able to work with local law enforcement to deport them? Will Cait Conley commit to opposing Medicare for All? Does Cait Conley still stand by her prior comments that she would welcome anyone to campaign for her in the 17th Congressional District, including Zohran Mamdani, Darializa Avila Chevalier, Brad Lander, and other members of the NYC DSA? Where this goes from here On Oct. 14, on PIX11 at 7 PM, voters will get to see Lawler crush Conley on the debate stage again. Three weeks out, Mike Lawler leads in the bluest seat any House Republican is defending this cycle. He’s up by double digits with independents, and Democrats who have worked with him are publicly endorsing his reelection. Cait Conley is running alongside a governor this district despises, and can’t level a truthful attack or answer difficult questions about her employment, rhetoric, or positions. |
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