ROCKLAND POST DESK
March 21, 2026
New poll shows Beth Davidson with an early lead as political tensions, activist disputes, and questions around campaign conduct begin to shape the race.
A newly released poll from Impact Research suggests that Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson has taken an early lead in the Democratic primary for New York’s 17th Congressional District, positioning herself ahead of a crowded field seeking to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.
The survey, conducted between February 24–26, 2026, among Democratic primary voters via live phone and text-to-web methods, indicates that Davidson currently holds advantages in name recognition, favorability, and initial voter support. According to the findings, 41% of respondents say they are familiar with Davidson—higher than any other candidate tested. She also leads in favorability at 33%, compared to 28% for Cait Conley, 25% for Peter Chatzky, and 13% for Effie Phillips-Staley.
In a hypothetical ballot test, Davidson receives 23% support, followed by Conley at 17%, Chatzky at 8%, and Phillips-Staley at 5%, while a significant 45% of voters remain undecided. The poll characterizes Davidson as the only candidate with a clearly defined base at this early stage, citing strong support in Rockland County as well as broader appeal across the district.
The memo attributes part of Davidson’s rise to recent media attention surrounding her opposition to federal immigration enforcement efforts in the Hudson Valley. This stance appears to resonate with a portion of Democratic voters, though it may also draw criticism from opponents who argue that such positions could become a liability in a general election against Lawler, particularly among more moderate or suburban voters.
When voters were presented with biographical summaries of the candidates, Davidson again performed strongly, with 84% indicating they would be likely to support her after hearing about her background, including her opposition to President Donald Trump and her record on local issues.
However, the poll—commissioned internally—also highlights potential vulnerabilities and controversies across the field. Cait Conley, for example, faces notable skepticism tied to her professional involvement with artificial intelligence companies, past criticisms of progressive organizations and labor unions, and questions about her residency history in the district. These concerns were viewed as “very serious” by as many as 53% of respondents.
Beyond polling, the race has already seen early political clashes and emerging controversies. A dispute between Davidson and Lawler escalated after Lawler accused her of associating with activist groups linked to protest rhetoric he described as antisemitic. Davidson strongly denied the allegations, calling them false and politically motivated.
Lawler has also begun framing the broader Democratic field in ideological terms. “Voters in the Hudson Valley aren’t looking for extreme politics—they want results,” he said, arguing that several candidates are out of step with the district. He has also emphasized that “these kinds of protests and rhetoric are unacceptable,” calling on opponents to clearly condemn them.
Separately, a grassroots activist group known as “Fight Lawler,” run by local activist Maureen Morrissey, has drawn attention in the district’s political conversation. Morrissey alleged that a person using a fake identity infiltrated a private organizing chat connected to the group. Activists later claimed the account was linked to a phone number associated with Erin Crowley, a staff member in Lawler’s office, though the allegation has not been independently verified.
Davidson responded to the incident by raising concerns and criticizing Lawler’s lack of response, suggesting the situation warranted explanation. While she did not present independent evidence confirming the allegation, her comments were seen as lending weight to questions about the conduct of Lawler’s team.
Other Democratic candidates have sought to distinguish themselves as the race develops. Conley emphasized a focus on economic issues and governance, saying the district needs “serious leadership focused on affordability, economic growth, and delivering results—not distractions or political infighting.”
Chatzky similarly called for a solutions-oriented campaign, stating that “voters are looking for a candidate who understands the economic pressures they’re facing,” and adding that “we need to keep the focus on solutions and not let the race be defined by negativity or distractions.”
The episode highlights a broader dynamic in the race, where candidates and allied activists are increasingly using online activity, grassroots organizing, and emerging controversies to shape narratives ahead of the primary. At the same time, such disputes carry risks, particularly when based on unproven claims, and may influence how voters assess candidate judgment and tone.
There is no confirmed formal endorsement of Davidson by Indivisible Rockland, though her policy positions and support network overlap with many progressive activists in the region. This has contributed to perceptions of alignment, even in the absence of an official backing.
The poll concludes that while Davidson holds early advantages, the race remains fluid, with nearly half of Democratic voters still undecided and multiple candidates working to build name recognition and support ahead of the primary.